A novel nomogram of mortality prediction in geriatric emergency patients with dengue fever
Background: Dengue fever (DF) causes a higher mortality in geriatric patients (≥ 65 years) than in the younger patients. Because there is still no adequate method to predict mortality in the geriatric DF patients, we intended to develop a novel nomogram to clarify this issue.
Methods: We recruited 627 geriatric DF patients who visited the study hospital between September 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015 for this retrospective case-control study. Variables including demographic data, symptoms, signs, vital signs, comorbidities, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality were analyzed. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to recognize independent mortality predictors, which were further combined to develop a nomogram for predicting death in this population.
Results: The total mortality was 4.3% (27 patients died). The nomogram consisted three independent mortality predictors: bedridden (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 8.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.93-64.36), severe hepatitis (AST>1000 U/L; AOR: 53.19; 95% CI: 5.79-691.21), and renal impairment (serum creatinine > 2 mg/dL; AOR: 7.20; 95% CI: 1.42-37.63).
Discussion & Conclusions: We developed a novel nomogram with user-friendly graphical interfaces which could generates the estimate to help predict mortality in geriatric DF patients. Further studies are warranted to validate its use.
